As for our latest article we’ve included some betting prognoses. The task is indeed difficult and the realm can never be certain; but here is a short, but full analysis of 2025Q1 possible outcomes.
The first quarter of 2025 will rock. Electrifying action in the Dota 2 pro circuit, with high-stakes tournaments, will set the stage for the year ahead. Betting enthusiasts will have plenty of opportunities to place wagers, but informed decisions are essential. Below, we tried to cover everything from team chances to the unpredictable nature of black swans in Dota 2. Here’s the complete breakdown.
Dota 2 Q1 2025 Betting Numerical Table
| Team | Win Chance (%) | Top 3 Chance (%) | Recommended Bets | Risk Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Falcons | 30% | 70% | Finals finish or outright win | Low | Consistent and adaptable; great for safe bets. |
| Team Liquid | 25% | 65% | Top 3 placement or map wins | Low | Strong laning phase, good for match-specific bets. |
| Gaimin Gladiators | 20% | 55% | Outright win in LAN events | Medium | Late-game specialists; risky in online formats. |
| PARIVISION | 12% | 40% | Upset wins in group stages | High | Aggressive playstyle suits BO1 group stages. |
| Tundra Esports | 10% | 35% | Black horse in slower metas | Medium-High | Strategic but can falter in long series. |
| Aurora | 5% | 20% | Long-shot outright win; BO1 upsets | High | Unpredictable drafts could shake up higher-seeded teams. |
| Team Secret | 8% | 25% | Playoff upsets or group stage eliminators | Medium | Veteran team with potential for surprise. |
| BetBoom | 5% | 15% | Match-specific upsets | High | Relies on opponents underestimating their adaptability. |
Best Bet Types by Stage
Group Stages: Focus on underdogs (Aurora, PARIVISION) for individual match wins.
Playoffs: Go with top-tier teams (Falcons, Liquid) for outright wins.
Finals: Hedge bets between two dominant finalists (e.g., Falcons vs. Gladiators).
Key Tournaments and Context
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025
Date: January 24 – February 2
Prize Pool: $1,000,000
Notable Format: Group Stage into Double-Elimination Bracket
Key Detail: Teams often experiment with drafts early in the year, leading to unpredictable matches.
BLAST Slam II
Date: February 3 – February 9
Prize Pool: $1,000,000
Format: BO1 Group Stage, BO3 Playoffs, BO5 Finals
Focus: High-pressure BO1 games in the group stage favor teams with strong early-game strategies.
DreamLeague Season 25
Date: February 16 – March 2
Prize Pool: $1,000,000
Format: League Format
Unique Element: Consistency is key; teams performing well across multiple series will dominate.
PGL Wallachia Season 3
Date: March 8 – March 16
Prize Pool: $1,000,000
Format: Double-Elimination
Black Swan Potential: Teams that adapt quickly to patch updates have a significant edge.
2025Q1 Schedule
| Tournament | Dates | Location | Prize Pool | Participants |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 | January 24 – February 2 | Belgrade, Serbia | $1,000,000 | To be announced. Qualifiers are ongoing across various regions, including China, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, and the Americas. |
| BLAST Slam II | February 3 – February 9 | To be announced | $1,000,000 | Participants not yet announced. The tournament will feature 10 teams competing in an offline format. |
| DreamLeague Season 25 | February 16 – March 2 | Online (Europe) | $1,000,000 | 16 teams to be announced. The event is organized by ESL Gaming and will be held online, featuring top-tier teams from various regions. |
| PGL Wallachia Season 3 | March 8 – March 16 | Romania | $1,000,000 | Participants to be announced. The tournament is expected to feature a double-elimination format with top teams from around the world. |
Contenders and Analysis
S-Tier Teams: The Titans
These teams consistently finish in the top 3 with strong drafts and execution.
Team Falcons
Strengths: Strategic flexibility and a standout mid-laner.
Key Stat: 68% win rate in 2024.
Betting Advice: There is a high chance of making finals (~40%), but outright wins depend on patch relevance.
Team Liquid
Strengths: Exceptional laning phase and decisive team fights.
Weaknesses: Vulnerable to unconventional drafts.
Prediction: Top 4 finishes in 70% of tournaments; winning chances around 30%.
Gaimin Gladiators
Strengths: Late-game resilience and map control.
Key Factor: Dominant performance in LAN settings.
Odds: 1 in 4 chance of winning if they reach the finals.
A-Tier Teams: Challengers
These teams have potential but are less consistent.
PАРVISION
Rank: #5
Strengths: Aggressive playstyle, capable of snowballing leads.
Weaknesses: Struggles against teams with strong macro play.
Betting Tip: A risky but high-reward bet in group stages.
Tundra Esports
Strengths: Creative drafting and off-meta picks.
Weaknesses: Vulnerable in long BO3 series.
Potential: Top 3 finishes in one of four events, especially if meta favors slow, tactical games.
Middle-Tier Teams: The Wild Cards
Aurora
Position: #15
Win Conditions: Exploit drafts through unpredictability.
Upset Potential: High in group stages, especially against experimental drafts from top teams.
Team Secret
Strengths: Veteran players who thrive under pressure.
X-Factor: Could peak in playoff stages, particularly in BO1 eliminations.
BetBoom
Chances: Middle of the pack but dangerous in specific matchups.
Focus: Look for matches against teams struggling with recent meta changes.
Patch Dynamics and Meta-Analysis
Dota 2’s unpredictable patches can heavily influence outcomes:
January-March 2025 Meta: Early rumors suggest changes to map objectives, emphasizing vision and positioning.
Hero Picks: Teams relying on flexible hero pools (e.g., Team Liquid, Tundra) will benefit.
Participants Summary
| Team | Win Rate (2024) | Recent Performance | Notable Achievements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Liquid | 65% | Champions of The International 2024 | Multiple Tier 1 wins in 2024, including TI 2024. |
| Gaimin Gladiators | 60% | Runners-up at The International 2024 | Consistent top-3 finishes in major tournaments throughout the year. |
| Tundra Esports | 58% | 3rd place at The International 2024 | Strong regional and international performances, known for resilience in lower brackets. |
| Team Falcons | 55% | 4th place at The International 2024 | Aggressive playstyle; upset victories against higher-ranked opponents. |
| Team Spirit | 50% | Underwent roster changes in late 2024 | Winners of The International 2021; struggling with roster instability in recent months. |
| Aurora | 52% | Top 8 finish at The International 2024 | Wildcard team with unpredictable strategies. |
| BetBoom Team | 53% | Top 8 finish at The International 2024 | Known for regional dominance and adaptability in gameplay. |
| Team Secret | 48% | Inconsistent results in major tournaments | Experienced lineup; capable of surprises in high-pressure games. |
Betting Strategy
Favorites (S-Tier Teams):
The likelihood of winning a tournament is Team Falcons (30%) and Team Liquid (25%).
Best for: Straight bets on deep playoff runs.
Middle-Tier Risks:
Black swan potential (Aurora, Team Secret): 10-15% to pull off major upsets.
Best for: Group stage upsets or specific match betting.
Underdog Long Shots:
A bet on Aurora winning outright could yield significant returns, but it’s a lottery pick with a 5-7% chance.