Will There Be a Battle Pass 2024 and When to Expect It?  All Options

The Riyadh Masters 2024 recently concluded, which means The International 2024 is clearly on the horizon for professional Dota 2. With about five weeks left, it's time to consider the 2024 Battle Pass or a similar alternative, as it's not only eagerly awaited content for fans but also a driver for the tournament's prize pool. We discuss what to expect this year in this material from Cybersport.ru.

Last year's experiment was unsuccessful

In 2023, Valve for the first time in many years abandoned the usual Battle Pass format. Instead of a battle pass with a lot of cosmetic rewards, tasks, and other entertaining events, a more modest compendium focused exclusively on esports and the tournament itself appeared. The main feature is that there are no in-game sets, only team and player cards. It's probably unnecessary to remember how interesting such loot was for users. In almost two months, the prize pool couldn't even increase by two million.

Comparison of TI prize pool growth in 52 days

Yes, Valve clearly showed esports teams what their popularity is worth without arcanas and immortal items. The company may again repeat such an experiment — after all, low sales of the compendium will not affect its financial stability. However, this is not the only possible path, so let's consider all possible scenarios.

The third act of "Crownfall" is suspiciously long. Battle Pass with items?

Speculation about a Battle Pass inevitably leads to the ongoing "Crownfall," the most extensive and diverse event Valve has offered in recent years. It's hard to imagine that the developers would decide to release something as grand in parallel with TI, so it's unlikely we will see any event timed for The International. However, there is a peculiarity worth noting. According to data miners, the final chapter of the story will be available on September 21 — exactly one week after the end of TI. This means the third act will last quite a long time:

First act — 34 days;

Second act — 48 days;

Third act — 73 days (not counting the possible delay of the fourth act, as was with the third).

So, essentially, the third act will last about as long as the first two combined. This leads us to think that perhaps Valve plans to release something else within it soon, which requires such a long interval, and the release of the fourth act is set just a week after TI ends.

"Crownfall" doesn't have a plethora of rewards — the number of free chests is limited. Moreover, no new arcanas have appeared in Dota 2 for two years, except for the shop items Vengeful Spirit and Skywrath Mage. Therefore, one of the options is creating a truncated Battle Pass with cosmetic rewards. Truncated in the sense that it will likely not include the familiar "Catacombs" (they're in the "Crownfall") and the accompanying event. However, the set will include the beloved level bar, which can be increased through daily/weekly tasks, activities around the tournament (predictions/fantasy/betting on matches), and, of course, donations. The old good Arcana voting, Rylai's Wheel, and other joys will return.

When it could be released: Considering that TI starts in 42 days, the release can be expected in the last days of July/early August.

How much it could raise: The Battle Pass adds to the TI prize pool until its end. This means we have 52 days left, and even with the most pessimistic predictions, if Valve delays the release, raising the prize pool to $15-20 million in 30-35 days is quite possible — if the developers really don't skimp on content.

Battle Pass release

Dataminers are wrong — the fourth act will be part of the Battle Pass?

In the previous point, we assumed that the data miners' data was accurate. However, in reality, their information is not always correct; otherwise, we would have had the Ringmaster and a few other characters in the game long ago.

The fourth act doesn't even have a meme (June 39) release date

But what if we suppose the fourth act will be released a couple of weeks before the start of The International and will ultimately become a kind of battle pass? Valve releases more new mechanics with each new chapter in the "Crownfall" — there's even a fighting game now. And here we have the final chapter related to the decisive battle for the throne — it quite fits the spirit of the battle for the Aegis. All sales from additional content in the fourth act can be directed to The International's prize pool.

If that's not enough, let's imagine that during the tournament, access to the last levels will be closed, which can be unlocked only by gathering an army. In the act itself, there will be a bar like "Army Gathering," which will be related to prize pool increases (Valve has used the reward unlocking mechanic before). The filler activities in the act will be tied to The International: instead of arena battles like in the second act, there will be team battles where you need to choose the winners of the game day — this could attract casual players to watch professional matches!

##When it could be released: A couple of weeks before The International.

How much it could raise: The purchase of additional missions and unique arcanas were popular in past acts, but exact figures are unknown (although with the event's release, Dota 2 rose to the top of Steam sales). So it's hard to say the exact amount, but it will likely be two to three times higher than last year.

Dota 2 will follow CS's path — will the compendium become valuable?

We should not discount the possibility that Valve decides to continue separating esports content from general content but will try to make the former more attractive. Last year's idea with player and team cards didn't work because they were ultimately useless. Essentially, their functionality was limited to being put on profile displays. But it works in CS! In a neighboring discipline, team stickers and player autographs are a significant source of income for everyone — as former VP CEO Sergey Glamazda said, one major could bring a team $2.5-3.5 million.

So why does it work in CS? The simple answer is that all these team stickers and player autographs are transferred directly into the game and put on weapons, thus becoming part of the cosmetics (and in their original form, they become a value like NFTs). Yes, it's harder to implement in Dota 2; you won't put Gladiators' logo on Pudge's forehead. But there are ways to implement it. For example, Overwatch had team sets with club-colored skins. And player-specific item sets in Dota 2 have been around before.

Therefore, Valve may improve last year's system, leaving it exclusively esports-focused, and we'll get a broader functionality for stickers. This could happen as a combination of two formats — last year's compendium and the bundle system — into something more extensive and appealing.

When it could be released: A week before The International (team stickers and player autographs in CS appear just before the tournament starts).

How much it could raise: This depends on the economic model Valve chooses. If following the CS model, the prize pool will remain at $1.6 million, but teams and players will earn extra. However, we shouldn't expect that the amounts will immediately be comparable to those in CS, especially if Valve doesn't make personal immortal items for the teams with their colors and more. But it's hard to believe in such an outcome.

Everything is going according to plan — a boring compendium

Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is that Valve will precisely retain last year's compendium model. This means we'll get a battle pass without cosmetic items for heroes, with a set of useless stickers and player cards. Given that most of the employees' resources are focused on the "Crownfall" and the promised release of the Ringmaster, which will probably come with some thematic event, the compendium may not receive even minimal changes, except for changing the players' photos (and that's not certain).

When it could be released: The last one was released two weeks before the tournament. So the release of the 2024 compendium is likely to be expected on August 21.

How much it could raise: Even less than last year. Against the backdrop of the "Crownfall," where there are cosmetic items, few will want to spend money on useless cards. So the final prize pool may be around $2.5 million.

We should not exclude another option, which looks even more dismal: Valve will do nothing for The International. This year, the tournament format has shrunk. Only 16 teams (the lowest since 2016) will participate, and they will only be in the arena for a couple of days in the decisive phase, not the entire playoffs. In general, the story that Valve is distancing itself from the professional scene is quite real, even if it's hard to believe in such a development.